If we take the Q4-restrictions into account, then, at the end of the year, the year-on-year downturn in economic output might again have been higher, but still lower than in the spring.Accordingly, the fall of the GDP could be 6.1% in 2020, which could be followed by a 4.2% increase in 2021.
This year, the changes in consumption, investments, and net exports resulted in a decrease of the economic output—all these three factors could, however, contribute to growth next year. This year, the downturn in consumption could have been 2.8%, and it could have been 10.9% in investments, 8.6% in exports and 6.4% in imports. In 2021, the growth rates of these factors could be 4.1%, 4.8%, 6.7% and 4.6%, respectively.
The inflation rate slowed down in the last months and was 2.7% in November. Given this slow-down, the annual average inflation rate may be 3.3% in 2020 and 3.5% in 2021. In 2021, the base effect will also contribute to growth: the demand for oil fell back during the spring lockdowns, and the price of the product decreased accordingly.
By 2020, the sovereign debt may have increased from 65.4%—measured at the end of 2019—to 81.0%, and we estimate the sovereign debt to decrease to 76.0% by the end of 2021.
Please find the full report here.
