Nearly two-thirds of voters expect Fidesz-KDNP to win in 2022

Regarding the outcome of the parliamentary elections next spring, a significant majority of voters, 63 percent, expect Viktor Orbán and Fidesz-KDNP to win, according to the latest poll of Századvég. Party preference indicators also show a stable dominance of the governing parties.

Nov 2, 2021

The latest poll of Századvég, conducted early October, examined the Hungarian political force among the politically active Hungarian population (promising their participation in the election for sure or probable). The research examined the support of parties in several dimensions and the voting base behind the political sides. If we examine only the two major poles,

Fidesz-KDNP has a 50 percent support base, the opposition coalition has a 44 percent support base,

and another 6 percent of respondents are uncertain or do not answer.

Source: Századvég, October 2021, CATI, n=1000, among the politically active Hungarian adult population, politically active = promising their electoral participation for sure or probable

Fidesz KDNP	50
Opposition coalition	44
Uncertain, does not answer	6

The bipolar party preference index is a good indication of the political force in terms of potential support regarding the ruling parties and the opposition. However, it is closer to the expected outcome of the elections if we look at the list of parties that may be on the ballot. In this dimension,

the support of Fidesz-KDNP is 45 percent, and that of the opposition coalition is 36 percent. Five percent of voters would vote for Magyar Kérfarkú Kutyapárt, 3 percent for Mi Hazánk Mozgalom, and 4 percent for other parties.

In this dimension, the proportion of those who are uncertain in their party preference and who refuse to respond is 7 percent.

Source: Századvég, October 2021, CATI, n=1000, among the politically active Hungarian adult population, politically active = promising their electoral participation for sure or probable

Fidesz KDNP	45
Opposition coalition	36
Magyar Kérfarkú Kutya Párt	5
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom	3
Other party	4
Uncertain, does not answer	7

A lot is revealed about voter commitment and mobilizability if voters are asked which pole of the political spectrum they expect to win in the 2022 parliamentary elections, regardless of who they would vote for.

According to 63 percent of respondents, Viktor Orbán and Fidesz-KDNP will win the election due next spring, 29 percent expect the opposition to win,

and another 8 percent are uncertain about the question or refused to answer. If we look at the voting base of the two poles of the political spectrum, it shows that opposition voters have less faith in the victory of their own political group. According to the survey, 91 percent of pro-government voters expect Fidesz-KDNP to win and only 4 percent expect the opposition coalition to win, whereas 62 percent of pro-opposition respondents expect the opposition coalition to win and 31 percent the ruling parties.

Source: Századvég, October 2021, CATI, n=1000, among the politically active Hungarian adult population, politically active = promising their electoral participation for sure or probable

Viktor Orbán and Fidesz-KDNP	0,63
Opposition coalition	0,29
Does not know, does not answer	0,08

Methodology: CATI method (via telephone), n=1000, among the politically active Hungarian adult population (who promise to vote for sure or probably vote), data collection: October 2021, margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage points

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Nearly two-thirds of voters expect Fidesz-KDNP to win in 2022

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